CONGRESS FACES UPHILL TASK TO RETAIN ITS LAST BASTION IN NORTHEAST

It is a tiny state with only 40 Assembly constituencies which are of not much significance when considered in respect of national political canvass under ordinary circumstances. However, Mizoram Assembly election, which was slated for Nov 28, 2018, is of much political importance in view of the forthcoming Lok Sabha election early next year especially for arch rivals Congress and the BJP and more so for Mizo regional party, Mizo National Front (MNF) which is desperately looking forward for its resurrection after remaining out of power for a decade since 2008.

On November 28, Mizoram — comprising of 40 assembly seats — went to polls recording 75 percent voters' turnout. The state is the last bastion of the Congress in the Northeastern region. Congress has been in power in the state with Chief Minister Lal Thanhawla at the helm for the past 10 years. Besides facing anti-incumbency, the party is also confronted with an adverse political trend; no party has ever succeeded for a third consecutive term in the state. These factors have bolstered the hopes of the main opposition — Mizo National Front (MNF) — led by former Chief Minister Zoramthanga, who was the Chief Minister of the state for two terms — from 1998 to 2008.

For the ruling Congress in Mizoram, it is a tough fight to retain power in the face of renewed challenge from the MNF and high-voltage campaign by the BJP that is striving hard to open its account in the Christian state as part of its mission to oust Congress from the region. For Congress president Rahul Gandhi, it is a battle of prestige before the Lok Sabha election 2019 to retain the Congress’ last bastion in Northeast that has been largely conquered by the BJP along with its regional allies. Among the all the eight NE states, the BJP is either heading the government or is part of the ruling coalition as on date except in Mizoram and Sikkim.

The Congress, which has launched a countrywide tirade against the BJP, can’t afford to lose Mizoram in the run-up to 2019 Lok Sabha polls as it would devastate the morale of party workers and once again questions on the leadership capability of Rahul Gandhi. For the MNF which has preferred to go alone in the fray sans a formal alliance with the BJP, the Assembly polls 2018 is crucial for it to come back to the power in the frontier hill state capitalizing on the anti-incumbency working against the ruling Congress.

The Congress came to power in 2008 with 32 seats and claimed 34 seats in 2013. The Mizo National Front, on the other hand, managed to win only five seats in 2013. However, Congress faces an uphill task basically for two reasons — no party has remained in power for more than two consecutive terms in Mizoram and secondly, the high unemployment rate despite high literacy, poor infrastructure, a series of resignations including the speaker, Home Minister, and MLAs in the run-up to the Assembly polls are working against the Congress.

Mizoram, which sends two representatives to the Parliament – one to Lok Sabha and one to Rajya Sabha, has conventionally been ruled by two parties – Indian National Congress (INC) and Mizo National Front (MNF). For the BJP, which has cut its teeth in state politics of Christian Mizoram, win even in a few constituencies out of the 39 it is contesting, will be of tremendous morale-boosting worth before the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls. In the event of a hung Assembly after the polls, the BJP with a few seats in its kitty may be in a position to influence government formation as it has done in Meghalaya and Nagaland.

The ruling Congress is highly apprehensive that the cash-rich saffron party might indulge in a massive horse trading once the results are out. Mizoram Congress spokesman Lalliaanchhunga said that “when the BJP has themselves admitted that they will not win more than five seats, and I presume they will get just 3 seats from the Bru-majority areas, how can they even think of forming the government without buying off MLAs. He said that the candidates of the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) will fall prey to the BJP as they are contesting the polls as Independents. The ZPM, an electoral alliance formed by six parties (earlier seven before the withdrawal of the NCP), has fielded 35 candidates. The BJP is depending largely on the ZPM as they are contesting as Independents and hence can evade the anti-defection law.

BRU REFUGEES GRANTED PERMISSION TO VOTE

The Brus fled Mizoram in 1997 in the wake of inter-community violence and persecution by a section of Christian Mizos. They have been living as refugees in Tripura, and have voted from the refugee camps in Tripura in the past elections. However, the NGOs, backed by the church bodies, have demanded that the Brus living in Tripura Transit Camps should come and cast their votes inside Mizoram, as every other Mizo do from outside the state at the time of the election. The former Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) of the state, SB Shashank, supported the Brus voting from their transit camps in Tripura. This led to a standoff between the CEO and the government and led to protests in the state. SB Shashank was removed, and the Election Commission appointed a new CEO. However, on Nov 23, newly elected CEO Ashish Kundra held a press conference where he confirmed the place of voting for Bru voters in Tripura refugee camp Kanhmun.

Kanhmun, a border village in Mamit district has been picked up as the place for Brus’ residing in Tripura camps to cast their franchise. A total of 15 special polling stations will be set up for the same and a total of 12,014 Brus residing in Tripura will be eligible to cast their franchise. Around 32000 Brus live in Tripura as refugees. Of over 5400 Bru families, only 31 returned to Mizoram. Fearing persecution, the rest refused to go. The Mizoram CEO further said that he has received good support from the joint NGO co-ordination of Mizoram who are ready to provide the voters with food and rest when they come to vote. For a successful voting turnout, the Mizoram CEO will work together with the Tripura CEO.

WILL BJP MAGIC WORK IN MIZORAM?

The question uppermost on the minds of people is if BJP could do in Mizoram what it has done in other Northeastern states. Over the past few years, the saffron party has dislodged Congress from power in five of the region's seven provinces either by aligning with regional parties or causing defections in them. Earlier this year, it trounced the Left Front to capture Tripura virtually on its own. With the Centre and most states under its belt, it is confident of giving a tough fight to Congress in Mizoram this election.

Many of its leaders have made it amply clear that they will keep their options open to edge Congress out of power and take a significant step towards making its slogan for 'Congress-mukt India' a reality. They hint at the possibility of their party concentrating on constituencies where Brus and Chakmas, two major minority tribal groups, have significant influence. Considering its present strength, which is not enough to take on Congress, BJP is likely to align with MNF. What makes such an alliance look possible is the fact that MNF is a constituent member of the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), the NDA's Northeastern version. As a matter of strategy or otherwise, MNF, however, has been repeatedly saying it will not have any truck with BJP even after the polls.

It is true, that the BJP created political miracles in Tripura and Assam by ousting the Communists and Congress respectively. But can the BJP oust Congress from Mizoram singlehandedly as it did in Tripura and Assam depends on the demographic structure of Mizoram.
Mizoram is a different ball-game for BJP. In the case of Tripura and Assam, both the states have mixed population with a largest chunks being that of the Hindus. But in the case of Mizoram, the situation is vastly different as the Hindutva factor may not operate here. According to 2011-Census, 87.16% of populations in the state are Christians. However, the appearance of BJP flags and festoons in constituencies such as Hachhek, Mamit and Dampa gives one the impression that the saffron party is serious about making its mark in the upcoming assembly election. Interestingly, these constituencies have a sizeable number of Bru voters. Similarly, the party is trying to have a foothold in Tuichawng and Tuipui, which are dominated by Chakmas. Brus and Chakmas are largely either Hindu or Buddhist.

THE BIG ISSUES

Illegal Immigration: Mizoram, which has 722 kilometre long international border with Myanmar (404 km) and Bangladesh (318 km), may see illegal immigration as one of the most important issues in the upcoming elections. Various reports estimate illegal migrants at 10,000 in the state. As per a Press Trust of India report last year, the BJP unit of Mizoram had urged the Congress government to identify and deport the illegal immigrants. In a similar instance last year, a group of major civil societies and student associations in a letter to the Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged to deport ‘Chakmas,’ a tribal community from Bangladesh.

Women-centric issues: Women voters have been outnumbering male voters in Mizoram for the past few years, but they are yet to get equal representation in Mizoram politics. The Mizoram Divorce Ordinance, 2008 promulgated by the state governor during the Mizo National Front (MNF) rule is still not formalised by the present government and it may give negative image to Congress.  In 2018, the Young Mizo Association (YMA), a powerful youth organisation in Mizoram, has demanded enactment of a law to ensure that any Mizo woman who marries a non-tribal loses her scheduled tribe status.

Unemployment: Unemployment is another important issue that plagues the state, which has a literacy rate of 91.85 percent, according to IBEF. As per Indiaspend, a non-profit organisation, rapid development as well as an advantage of English knowledge among the Mizos is not creating enough jobs and livelihood for the people.

THE PARTIES AT PLAY

CONGRESS 

Mizoram is the only state in the Northeast region to have a Congress government in place for the past two terms (2008 and 2013) with chief minister Lal Thanhawla leading the assembly. The party has announced its list of 40 candidates for the upcoming assembly elections. Thanhawla will contest from the Champhai South (ST) and Serchhip (ST) seats – both reserved for the Scheduled Tribe (ST) category. However, in a setback for Congress, four legislators have resigned ahead of the election, which includes state home minister R Lalziriliana, former health minister Lalrinliana Sailo, MLAs Buddha Dhan Chakma and Hmingdailova Khiangte. Internal squabbles and anti-incumbency are making the situation difficult for the Congress in Mizoram, which is expected to face a tough challenge from the MNF in the upcoming Assembly polls.

BHARATIYA JANATA PARTY 

Kicking off the party’s campaign at Aizawl, party president Amit Shah had said Mizoram will celebrate Christmas under a BJP government. The BJP does not have any legislator in the 40-member Assembly. BJP leaders have been asserting that they would make all efforts to remove Congress from the power from the state to paint the whole Northeastern states with the saffron colour. The saffron party has been making concerted efforts to win the state, after having formed governments on its own or joining hands with allies in all other Northeastern states. If voted to power, the BJP has offered to construct a four-lane highway across the state, linking both Myanmar and Bangladesh. Also, engineering colleges would be established at Lunglei and Champhai districts.

MIZO NATIONAL FRONT

MNF asserted that it would not form an alliance with the BJP in the event of a fractured verdict in the November 28 assembly elections. The MNF will be contesting all the 40 seats in the upcoming election to the state legislature.

NATIONAL PEOPLE'S PARTY

NCP announced its nine candidates for the upcoming polls. The NPP was launched in Mizoram by its president and Meghalaya chief minister Conrad Sangma on September 29. The party was founded in 2013 by veteran parliamentarian PA Sangma following his ouster from the NCP.

NATIONAL CONGRESS PARTY 

NCP said it would contest five of the 40 seats of the Mizoram Legislative Assembly. The NCP, which has been contesting Assembly polls in Mizoram since 2003, had not won a single seat in 2013 assembly poll.

ZORAM PEOPLES MOVEMENT

Six small regional parties have come together under the Zoram Peoples Movement (ZPM)’s banner to contest the November 28 polls. ZPM is hoping to provide an alternative to the Congress and MNF as well as nix the BJP’s attempt to extend its influence to the Christian-majority state. ZPM, which was formed last year, has fielded 37 candidates. It could play a key role in the formation of the next government if the Congress and MNF fail to cross the 20-seat mark in the 40-member assembly.

PRISM 

The name of Mizoram’s newest political party is a mouthful, but its acronym is catchy. PRISM president Vanlalruata said that the main objective of the PRISM was to change political system in Mizoram and root out corruption while ensuring efficient governance. PRISM has fielded 13 candidates for the upcoming polls.


THE PAST ELECTIONS

In the last state election in 2013, Congress won 34 out of 40 seats in the assembly. Mizo National Front and Mizoram People's Conference won five seats and one seat respectively. Apart from this, ZPM will field 37 candidates, followed by Zoram Thar (23), PRISM (13) and 3 Independent candidates.

Formation of the new political group Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) will not only create problems for BJP and MNF but Congress too. Earlier, MNF and Congress faced no threats from ZPM.  Since ZPM, contesting 39 seats, is a cluster of Zorum Exodus Movement, Zoram Nationalist Party, Mizoram People’s Conference, Zoram Decentralization Front, Zoram Reformation Front and Mizoram People’s Party, it can get support of the ethnic Zorum people as a whole. The BJP, Congress or MNF are unlikely to get Zorum-votes making ZPM the possible king maker. The conversion of People’s Right to Information and Development Implementation Society of Mizoram (PRISM) from an anti-corruption watchdog into a political party is likely to wean away votes from the BJP, MNF and Congress. It is in this backdrop Maraland Democratic Front or MDF (earlier an ally of MNF) merged with the BJP harming MNF.


THE LAST CHANCE

Mizoram is the only state currently ruled by the Congress in the Northeast. The tiny state is being seen by the BJP as its 'final frontier’ in the ‘Congress-free Northeast' campaign. It is easily understandable that to retain the only bastion in the region, the Congress is openly playing the majority card by trying all the moves to woo the Church and the Christians. It is an irony that the same Congress party which accuses the BJP of playing the Hindutva card is itself playing Christian card in Mizoram.